Friday, October 12, 2007

Solar electricity generators from Ammini

http://ammini.com/prod_solar_power_system.php

I have one installed at my home - Generates AC current from solar energy. Powers most simple home appliances like lights, fans, TV, DTH set top boxes (e.g. Tata Sky), etc. Generates around 200 to 400 Watt hours per day - although they claim to generate output of 600Wh. Total cost including taxes - Rs. 85,000/-

Should you buy it? Yes - only if you are a big solar/clean-environment fan. No - if you are looking at reducing the cost of power that you buy from electricity boards. The reduction in costs - if any - might not be visible in the initial 15-20 years after installation. For me, the satisfaction of being able to independently power up my house (at least for sometime every day) is simply amazing.

Cheers,
- Tosh

Friday, July 13, 2007

4 investing gems from Warren Buffett

Taken from Rediff (By Chandnee Sinha)

July 12, 2007 14:14 IST

Warren Buffett, probably the greatest investor of his generation, rarely communicates his investment ideas in writing to the general public.

And why should he? If someone has that extra edge when it comes to making money from the stock markets, he would rather use it for himself rather than go around sharing it. But once a year, he makes an exception to the rule and does give out his way of thinking through the annual letter he writes to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway.

Other than this he has given many speeches over the years, which have given the general public some idea of the way he thinks. Here are a few of these gems which he has shared with his shareholders over the years through his letters and speeches.

1. Buy the business and not the stock

The speech titled, 'The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville,' delivered to the students of Columbia Business School in 1984, remains the most famous speech that Buffett ever made.

This speech was delivered at a seminar held to celebrate the 50 years of the publication of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's book Security Analysis. Benjamin Graham was Warren Buffett's Guru at Columbia School and all the years that Graham taught there Buffett was his only student to have got an A+ grade.

And Buffett, as we all know, has surely lived up to that grade. This speech elucidated his firm belief in the principle of value investing. Value investors, he said, "search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market." Hence, the only thing they are bothered about is "how much is the business worth?"

As Buffet said in the speech, "He's not looking at quarterly earnings projections, he's not looking at next year's earnings, he's not thinking about what day of the week it is, he doesn't care what investment research from any place says, he's not interested in price momentum, volume or anything. He's simply asking: What is the business worth?"

And hence, as Buffett points out in the speech about value investors. "While they differ greatly in style, these investors are, mentally, always buying the business, not buying the stock."

As we all know, the question 'how much is a business worth?' is not easy to answer and depends on how closely the investor follows the business of the company he is investing in and the understanding he has of that particular line of business.

Buffett himself follows this and does not invest in businesses he does not understand. Information technology is one sector he has consciously stayed away from even at the height of the technology boom.

2. Buy when the stock prices are low

One of the peculiar things about stock markets is the fact that investors like to buy when the markets are doing well and the stock prices are on their way up. This is not the best way to invest given the fact that in everyday life we like to buy more of something only when the prices are low.

Buffett explains this point in his letter to the shareholders for the year 1997. "A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices?"

"These questions," he goes on, "of course, answer themselves. But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the 'hamburgers' they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."

3. For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases

Getting into stock because everyone around you is and hoping to make money from it money successfully is not everyone's cup of tea. As more and more investors get into the same stock, and price rises, the chances of making money from the stock go down.

In his 2005 letter Buffett wrote, "Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: he lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, 'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: 'For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.'"

4. There is a thin line separating investment and speculation

Buffett explains this beautifully in his letter to the shareholders in the year 2000. "The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money."

"After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities -- that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future -- will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

Friday, May 18, 2007

In the new India, the old problem with electricity

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/17/news/india.php

GURGAON, India: This suburb south of New Delhi is where the fruits of India's economic advance are on full display: sprawling malls, gleaming skyscrapers housing India's acclaimed software sector, condominiums with names as fanciful as Nirvana Country.

But this posh address of the new India is also a portrait of Indian ambitions bumping up against Indian realities.

Look up at the top of these towers and on any given day, you are likely to find three, four, six smokestacks poking out from each rooftop, blowing gray-black plumes into the clouds. If the smokestacks are on, it means the power is off and that the building - whether bright new mall, condominium or office - is probably being powered by diesel-fed generators.

This being India, a country of more than one billion people, the scale is staggering.

In just one case, Tata Consultancy Services, a technology company, maintains five giant generators, along with a nearly 20,000-liter, or 5,300-gallon, tank of diesel underground, as if it were a gasoline station.

The reserve fuel can power the lights, computers and air conditioners for up to 15 days to keep Tata's six-story building humming during the hot, dry summer months, when temperatures routinely soar above 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) and power cuts can average eight hours a day.

The Gurgaon skyline is studded with hundreds of buildings like this. In Gurgaon alone, the state power authority estimates that the gap between demand and supply hovers around 20 percent, and that is probably a conservative estimate.

For all those who suffer from crippling power cuts in cities like this, there are others who have no electricity connection at all. According to the Planning Commission of India, 600 million people - roughly half the population - are off the electricity grid. For this reason, it is impossible to estimate accurately the total national shortfall.

The electricity crisis has become all the more acute for the roaring pace of India's economic growth and the new material aspirations it has generated.

Rachna Tandon, a prosperous housewife, is a good example. She moved here to a quiet street of row houses 14 years ago, settling in what was one of the first residential sites built by DLF Universal, Gurgaon's and India's largest builder.

Back then, electricity was in short supply, but she was fully confident things would improve. The advertisements at the time described Gurgaon as the best address south of Delhi. It was pitched as a millennium city.

Today Tandon says she prefers to think of it as a medieval city. The day before, the power went out for roughly 11 hours. Her inverter, which is basically a series of rechargeable batteries - a household necessity here - collapsed after four hours.

For respite, some of her neighbors drove around in their air-conditioned cars. Her own children lingered outside and finally, when they nodded off to sleep, they lay on the living room floor, the coolest spot in the house.

Each appliance in her well-stocked home - an air conditioner in each room, a flat-screen television, a microwave and an electric stove - speaks to the gap between India's dreams and its realities.

The power cuts had thawed the chicken sausage in her freezer and she would have to throw it away in case it had spoiled. She did not dare use her electric oven, for fear that the power would go out in the middle of baking.

With no television, her 10-year-old son has been so bored that he took out his old cricket bat and ended up putting a ball through the kitchen window. Her daughter, 13, has had to study by flashlight. This summer, Tandon said, the family will have to choose between buying a generator and going on vacation. "We're living in the dark ages," she said.

For all her suffering, a reminder of the other India came earlier in the week, when her mother called from her hometown in rural north India and said she had had electricity for just one hour during the day.

In part because of these limitations, Indians are, for now, relatively conservative consumers of energy: about 600 units per capita per year, or one-fifth that of a typical American. But that will certainly increase as Indian desires reach those of the wealthy Western countries.

A recent report by McKinsey Global Institute frothily predicted a fourfold increase in consumer spending by 2025, vaulting India, as it said, "into the premier league among the world's consumer markets." McKinsey forecast that India would surpass Germany as the fifth-largest market in the world.

Driven by the needs of plenty, India has stepped up power generation in recent years at the pace of about 6 percent a year. It is a pittance compared to what neighboring China adds on each year and in any case insufficient to keep up with India's galloping demand.

The government has promised electricity connections for all - which means access to the grid, not round-the-clock power - by 2009. That is a target that does not seem plausible at current rates of power generation.

The development of power plants, meanwhile, is constrained by a lack of access to land, fuel and water, all of which a power plant needs in large quantities. The power grid remains weak.

In Gurgaon, for instance, transformers routinely blow out because of heavy loads. Voltage fluctuations damage electrical appliances of all sorts.

What the state cannot provide efficiently, many take for themselves. The World Bank estimates that at least $4 billion in electricity is unaccounted for each year - that is to say, stolen. Transparency International estimated in 2005 that Indians paid $480 million in bribes to put in new connections or correct bills.

The country's energy needs are one of the government's main arguments for a nuclear deal with the United States, which would allow India to buy reactors and fuel from the world market.

But even if the deal goes through, it would lift nuclear power, now at 3 percent, to no more than 9 percent of India's energy supply, said Leena Srivastava, executive director of the Energy and Resources Institute, a nongovernmental research group.

Similarly, in the coming years, alternative sources of energy, like wind, are expected to double, but to no more than about 8 percent of supply.

Coal will continue to dominate power generation and already more than a third of India's coal plants do not meet national emissions standards.

For Indian business, coping with chronic power shortages is a part of the cost of business.

At Tata, company managers took pains to say that power shortages do not hinder their ability to meet deadlines for their clients.

"The work as such does not suffer," said Gurinder Virk, assistant general manager. "We have sufficient stocks of diesel at all times." Behind the building, three generators purred as a sweltering evening descended. A 2004 World Bank survey found that 60 percent of companies in India have such facilities.

Still, construction here surges ahead. With few exceptions, there are little to no efforts to reduce power consumption, beyond the use of low-energy light bulbs. Gurgaon is dotted with buildings that are effectively curtains of glass, soaking up the searing summer heat.

"It's good for New York, not Gurgaon," was the verdict of Niranjan Khatri, a general manager with ITC, an Indian conglomerate whose office tower here is one of the few to comply with green building codes.

Across the highway, the nearly completed Ambi Mall promises one kilometer of shopping on each floor. Next to it, a billboard for the Mall of India promises an even bigger shopping center, one that will put India on the "global retail map."

Never mind that Gurgaon does not have a sewage treatment plant of its own or that the already existent Metropolitan Mall burns an average of 6,000 liters of diesel a day to run its generators during power cuts.

Farther south, in Nirvana Country, there are only generators. The 800-unit complex of row houses and apartment blocks, still under construction, is not even connected to the public electricity grid. It swallows 6,000 gallons of diesel each week to meet its needs - and that with only a fifth of its units occupied.

It was unclear how the power needs will be met once it reached full occupancy, said M.K. Pant, a retired army colonel who is now Nirvana's estate manager. "There's nothing in the files," he said. "There's nothing in the thinking also."

No matter. Newspaper advertisements for Nirvana Country promise "air conditioning in all rooms."

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Book Review - The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari

Author - Robin Sharma.

To begin with, I liked the book - though not the entire part. In general I liked the concept but at some places it becomes boring and impracticable. Overall, I would recommend it especially for those who live a fast paced life.

To go into the details, its a story of a highly successful lawyer. In the middle of his glorious career, he faces a heart attack. Its a result of a hectic routine and complete lack of caring for health. He uses this event as a blessing in disguise and goes to the East looking for Peace of Mind - This is the part that does not make sense. I think that its only because the author is Indian that the lawyer comes to India - another reason might be to woo the Indian readers :-)

But once on a visit to Nirvana, this lawyer learns some techniques of quality living. He then comes back and passes on the knowledge to an ex-colleague. The part that I liked the most was the list of 10 rules for radiant living -

1. Ritual of Solitude.

2. Live nourishment - Eat healthy food. Though I don't quite agree with the concept of eating veg because I love Chicken and Mutton :-)

3. Physical nourishment - Daily exercise

4. The Ritual of a Congruent Character - To build a morale and conscience and to envision a mission for life

5. Abundance of Knowledge - In short the habit of reading (good!) books. "He who doesn't read good books has no advantage over those who cannot read them"

6. Self introspection / reflection

7. The Ritual of Music

8. The Ritual of the spoken word - e.g. Some mantras or some Pledge etc.

9. The Ritual Of Early Awakening

10. The Ritual of Simplicity

If taken seriously, the book has the potential to make a real impact on your life.

The thing that I loved the most about the book was its name. Its a great idea to name something like that. When you hear the words "The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari", You immediately start thinking about - How did a Monk own a Ferrari? Or How did a Ferrari owner become a Monk, and Why the hell did he sell it? But its a very good way of capturing a reader.

Cheers,
- Tosh

Monday, March 12, 2007

Cricket World Cup

Who will win?

I don't care. All I want is Australia to loose. Because no matter how fascinating it might be to watch them play well and win, it is even more satisfying when someone else gets on top of them. Its a question of whether or not their arrogance will dominate their skills.

Over to the islands...

Cheers,
- Tosh

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

India Not Shining?

There have been a lot of dissapointing news for the nation in the past month or so:

1. Farmer suicides -> Despite government interventions, farmers in Vidarbha and elsewhere continue to kill themselves. Reasons? Governments not doing enough to solve their problems. Aam admi's party no longer cares for the poor. Solutions? Eliminate private money lending. Do away with BT Cotton and similar sinister schemes. Waive farmer loans in a manner similar to that of waiving industrial loans.

2. Inflation -> Spiralling costs of essential commodities. Reasons? Might be out of the control of the government. Solutions? No short term remedy in sight. Medium and long term controls already in place. Effects? The poor keeps getting poorer. Who is responsible? Of course the government, they must have a vision to foresee such damaging scenarios and mitigation plans for quick fixes.

3. Energy Shortage -> Power cuts and load shedding hours increase to alarming levels - more so - in the rural areas. Effects? Unemployment, Lack of infrastructure leading to slowdown in the fast growing economy. Reasons? Lack of long term planning by past governments. Solutions? Continuous long term planning and immediate shift to re-usable energy resources wherever possible.

4. Terror attack on the most sensitive train the country. If this is the condition for the train which is supposed to be the most secure, then what is the status of all other trains? India continues to be the softest terror target in the world. Reasons? No control on infiltration. No effective anti terror central law. Minority appeasement policies of central and UP government with an eye towards cheap electoral gains in the coming elections.

Tough times...

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Favourite TV show on air - India Tonight with Karan Thapar on CNBC TV 18

India Tonight is an intense and thought provoking show that runs on CNBC TV 18. The anchor Karan Thapar talks to 2-3 guests on a topic every night Monday to Thursday at 10.30 pm India Time. http://www.tv18online.com/cnbcTV18_shows.html

Its a must watch for them who have any interest in politics of the nation. For me, it is the best program on show currently on TV. An added attraction - It has only one break!

Watch it and it will keep you thinking about the topic at least 5 minutes after the show ends.

Karan's famous ending line every night is - "And if you have been, then Thanks for watching. Good bye and Good night".

Cheers,
- Ashutosh

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Current Reading - The Monk Who Sold his Ferrari

by Robin Sharma.

http://www.amazon.com/Monk-Who-Sold-His-Ferrari/dp/0062515675

Cheers,
- Tosh

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Nice article about fiscal deficit, inflation, economy etc.

Picked up straight from www.equitymaster.com

Fiscal deficit: Grim consequences...


While India's GDP has been growing at a strong 8% per annum rate, there are several factors that can derail this growth process in the long run. Bad governance, poor physical and social infrastructure, fiscal deficit, you name it! Out of these, while a lot has been discussed and debated on poor governance and sorry state of infrastructure, the consequences with respect to the high fiscal deficit of central and state governments and the burden that these impose on the overall financial and monetary system, can be really grim.

While it is not necessary that fiscal deficit should always be a matter of concern especially for developing economies like India, if unchecked, the same can lead to grim consequences. In this write-up, we shall examine the problems associated with a high level of fiscal deficit and the likely impact of the same on the economy.



What is fiscal deficit?
In simple terms, fiscal deficit is defined as the difference between government's expenditure and its total receipts. In other words, because the government fails to match its expenses with what it earns, it has to resort to 'deficit financing' by borrowing in various ways.

One important argument against fiscal deficit is that it results in the crowding out effect i.e., the government 'crowds out' private investment leading to a possible hike in interest rates. To put things in perspective, if the government garners a higher share of the borrowings from the market, the private sector will consequently have a lesser share. This will lead to a rise in interest rates and a higher cost of capital for private investors. On the inflation front, a high fiscal deficit enhances the inflation of an economy. The reason is that government's borrowings to meet its expenditure lead to a rise in the money stock in the economy without a consequent growth in capital productivity. This is said to have an inflationary effect as few goods are chased by more money. This is especially so, if the borrowings of the government are utilised for the financing of the deficit rather than for accelerating the output.

Therefore, the crux of the matter really is the composition of the government expenditure. Are the government borrowings utilised more for productive purposes? The answer is 'no'. As can be evinced from the table below, a larger chunk of the government expenditure is being diverted towards non-plan expenditure such as interest payments and subsidies. This means that the government is effectively borrowing to pay off debts and the interest on the existing debt, further compounding the fiscal deficit problem.


Expenditure: Is it productive?
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
Total expenditure (Rs bn) 3,256 3,623 4,132 4,712 4,977 5,087
(% of GDP) 15.4% 15.9% 16.9% 17.1% 15.9% 14.4%
Plan expenditure (% of GDP) 3.9% 4.4% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1%
Non-plan exp (% of GDP) 11.5% 11.4% 12.3% 12.6% 11.7% 10.3%

Source: CMIE
To conclude...
As mentioned earlier, a fiscal deficit is not a bad sign, if the government is utilizing the borrowings for productive purposes. Given the fact that India faces huge constraints on the infrastructure side, the focus has to be on development of roads, airports, highways, and curbing power shortages. This is more so if the current level of GDP growth has to be sustained. While the strong forex reserves position and GDP growth rate has ensured that India does not re-visit the 1991 crisis again, the government needs to understand that prudent utilisation of resources will go a long way in charting and sustaining India's economic health in the future.