Friday, September 22, 2006

NASA's Space Shuttle Atlantis comes back safely to earth

On Thursday morning at Florida, the space shuttle Atlantis landed safely. The NASA's Landing Blog gave nice updates about the re-entry and the landing of the shuttle.

Some interesting facts:
1. The shuttle covered the distance from the Indian Ocean to Florida in one hour flat.
2. It was flying at the speed of around 13,000 miles per hour.
3. This was the (approximately) 6th flight of the Shuttle Atlantis.

Till the next time, Bye Bye Atlantis.

Cheers,
- Tosh

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Farmer Suicides - A good article from The New York Times

While browsing for some other news on the New York Times, I came across an advertisement for this article. Its a very good report on the ever-increasing and disappointing story of the farmer suicides mainly in Vidarbha and also in other regions of rural India. It covers many aspects of the issue including the BT cotton, the moneylenders and so on.

Take a look at On IndiaÂ’s Farms, a Plague of Suicide if you are interested.

Whenever I read about these stories it makes me feel really sad. On one hand, India is seeing a lot of GDP growth. The standard of living of the urban society has gone up by leaps and bounds since the past two generations. However, the conditions of living in the rural areas have gone from bad to worse. Isn't it pathetic?

The blame undoubtedly lies with the government who is sitting blindly, not making good policies to ban something like BT Cotton, not doing enough to crack down on the illegal money lending business and not caring enough about the nearly two-thirds of the population.

The gap between the rich and the poor - sadly - gets bigger by the day.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Ex-Intelligence Bureau Director's Interesting views on Indo-Pak peace process

Picked up straight from Indian Express. The author has critisized the latest Indian stragey in the peace dialogue. Here's the complete article:

A strategic setback for India
Ajit Doval

Pakistan’s military leadership may consider Havana statement a dividend for the terror attacks in India

India has suffered its first strategic setback in the fight against terrorism by certifying that Pakistan is not an aggressor but a state aggressed upon. On the terrorism front it brings both countries at par. For a quarter of a century, we felt Pakistan was the aggressor — first in Punjab, then in Kashmir and now in rest of the country — leaving more than 60,000 dead. Perhaps India was right in the past to blame Pakistan but no longer, apparently. Pakistan might have done so much in the recent past that there is justification not to carry the baggage of history and grapple with the new positive realities.

Let’s examine the contemporary realities which overnight transformed our perception of Pakistan from a terrorist-sponsoring state into that of a counter-terrorist partnership state. In the past 12 months, Pakistan-sponsored terrorists struck across the country, killing nearly 400 persons (the heaviest casualties suffered in a year by independent India outside the terrorist-hit states).

In Kashmir, it has increased infiltration and upped the ante of violence. In fact, Kashmir chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad said as much on NDTV 24x7’s Walk The Talk programme (published in The Indian Express on September 18). ISI-sponsored militants, he said, “have been let loose”, adding, “I don’t think this could be possible without the knowledge of Musharraf Sahab”.

Under the pretext of helping earthquake victims it handed over relief work and the funds that poured in to Lashkar-e-Toiba to enable it to entrench itself there. It still harbours Salahuddins and Dawoods, provides them Pakistani passports and identity cards and facilitates their anti-India activities. A decade and a half since the demise of Punjab militancy, the ISI still harbours more than a dozen top commanders of various Sikh outfits.

National Security Advisor MK Narayanan revealed that Pakistan supported the Taliban in the kidnapping and killing of Maniappan, an Indian worker in Afghanistan. In a post-Mumbai blasts interview he warned that Pakistan-linked terrorists could strike our nuclear facilities, scientific establishments and defence forces. The ISI has substantially upgraded its presence in Bangladesh and is increasingly leveraging fundamentalist groups for anti-India action. The CBI believes that fake Indian currency notes are being “supplied by the Pakistan government press at Quetta to Dubai-based counterfeiters who smuggle it into India”. It pegs the volume of such notes at Rs.1,69,000 crores.

By conviction and experience, Pakistan feels that once the dust settles and the ritual of brave statements is over, India eventually bends to coercive power. When asked, in June 2003, whether Kargil was a mistake, Musharraf told Gulf News: “We don’t trust India. Before Kargil, Kashmir was a dead issue. Bilateral talks started only because of Kargil. Another Kargil taking place would depend on how the peace talks proceed.” Pakistan’s army leadership may be considering the Havana statement as a dividend for heightened terrorism in the mainland.

Just a month ago the Prime Minister asserted that “We are certain that the terror modules responsible for the Mumbai blasts are instigated, inspired and supported by the elements across the border”. How do we reconcile this with India’s statement in Havana: “The fact is, terror is a threat to Pakistan. And it has been a threat to India. We need to have a collective mechanism to deal with it.” For Pakistan, using terror to achieve its strategic and political objectives is part of its state policy and that is what India is opposed to. If for reasons political, religious or otherwise Pakistan society becomes violence ridden it does not bring Pakistan at par with states it has continuously targeted and bled.

That Musharraf, who during the SAARC summit in Nepal in January 2002, said that the Kashmir issue “was linked to Indian terrorism and cannot be separated”, is now going to be our comrade-in-arms in our war against terrorism betrays both a lack of history and strategic vision. Pakistani commentator Ahmad Rashid told German newspaper Der Spiegel that “Pakistan remains the global centre for terrorism. The fact is that, after 9/11, despite the May crackdown by the Musharraf regime, we haven’t shut down Pakistani militant groups. The reason is that these groups are very closely tied with the military’s foreign policy, especially with respect to Kashmir and Afghanistan.” This holds good today — every indication points in that direction.

Musharraf is currently under heavy pressure from all sides. Domestically he has lost much of his credibility and legitimacy; democratic forces are ranged against him. The least that democratic forces in Pakistan expect is that India will not do anything that will strengthen the forces of totalitarianism. Baluchistan was in flames after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti. Despite the recent accord, the Waziristan agency is still unstable. Was it for Indiato have given this breather to Musharraf?

If Pakistan was sincere and we were really strong and farsighted we should have demanded Pakistan rolling back its terrorist infrastructure lock, stock and barrel, hand over the people harboured to bleed India and stop arms, financial and logistical support to terror-linked collaborative networks. Giving a clean chit to Pakistan without any basis and at the most inopportune time is baffling.

Most likely, repeating history, Musharraf would have promised to bundle up the Salahuddins and Dawoods, close the camps, choke the financial channels or even stop ISI run printing of Indian currency. He may even deliver on some to give his Indian counterparts some mileage before the next Assembly elections. For a few months there might be a fall in acts of terrorism, which would only prove Pakistan’s tight control over the issue. However, Pakistan agencies will simultaneously redouble their efforts to establish new sleeper cells and strengthen the old ones, move and dump weapons and explosives in targeted parts of the country. There is no paradigm shift for Pakistan.

General Aziz Khan, Musharraf’s former Chairman Joint Chief of Staff, addressing an army function in Rawalkot on June 24, 2003, had said: “Pakistan not only knows how to tackle India but has leaders with the guts.” I wish we could say the same.

The writer is a former director, Intelligence Bureau

Friday, September 15, 2006

Why did India enforce the Power Plays?

India were defeated by West Indies in the second game of the DLF cup in Kuala Lumpur. The match was abandoned after 20 overs of West Indies innings and they were 141/2. With the 50-over target of 309, the 20-over target using the Duckworth Lewis system was 113. And hence the match was awarded to the West Indies.

After the match Lara in the interview said that they knew that there was always a chance of rain and hence they made sure that they were always ahead of the asking run rate. My question is :- Why did India not make more efforts to make sure that the West Indies' run-rate was kept down? Was it this ignorance that cost them the match? Had they not enforced the two powerplays, the West Indies would not have scored so heavily and India would have had a great chance of winning the rain-truncated game!

What surprises me the most is not just the fact that India did not consider delaying the PowerPlays. But the fact that this lapse went un-noticed. I have not come across a single comment on television or news or internet which would suggest that the loss could have been avoided by this simple tact! The whole world is so busy praising Sachin Tendulkar that they seem to have forgotten the fact that India lost the match. In doing so India have rewarded West Indies with a bonus point and I now see it almost impossible for India to reach the finals. In order to do that, India will have to beat the West Indies with one bonus point and end up with higher run-rate. This is so because, on current bowling/fielding form, I do not see India beating the Australians.

If only I knew the email address of Rahul Dravid, I will request him to consider the option of delaying the PowerPlays in future such secnarios. And if only there was an alias like all@CricketCrazyIndia, I will tell them to stop over-praising Sachin and also think about the team.

Please let me know your comments.

Cheers,
- Tosh

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

The economics after 9-11 & Indian Stock Markets

Below is a fantastic write-up from EquityMaster that talks about the effects of September 11 attacks on the US, world economy and its relation to the Indian Stock Markets. Take a look...

Today is a day that will mark the fifth anniversary of the deadly attack that brought down the world trade center, the symbol of the American economic might and the one that forever left an indelible mark on the American psyche. The repercussions, however, were not just political. The attacks completely knocked the winds out of the sails of US economy, which was already reeling in the aftermath of the tech bubble burst. Something had to be done to prop the consumption levels, which had hit quite a low since people opted to save rather than spend, as uncertainty loomed large before them. US central bank, more popularly known around the world as the Federal Reserve, then took the all-important step of slashing interest rates and bringing them to virtually zero, thus egging the US consumers to not just spend but splurge. And splurge they did! Armed with one of the lowest interest rates in decades, they went about buying anything and everything that came their way and in the process gave a much needed boost to the US economy. Elsewhere in the Far East, an event not as visible as the travails of the US economy, but equally important, was fast unfolding. With robust economic growth in the region of 9% to 10% behind it, China was finally coming into its own and was asserting its newfound economic importance on the world stage. With cheap labor force in abundance and ruthless utilization of economies of scale, the country was fast acquiring a reputation of being a factory to the world. However, maintaining the growth momentum required massive amount of investments in its infrastructure and the country soon turned into the world's largest consumer of a lot of industrial goods and services. In fact, more than half of world's total output of a lot of commodities was gobbled up by China in order to feed its ravenous appetite for manufacturing driven growth. Thus, the world economy fast turned into a two-horse chariot, with both the US and the Chinese economy perfectly complementing each other. Buoyed by rock bottom interest rates, the US consumer bought cheap Chinese goods by the truckloads and the Chinese manufacturer in turn utilized the money by investing in capacity expansion and sprucing up the country's infrastructure. However, neither was China going to be able to meet all its demand for commodities internally and nor was it the only market the US consumers relied upon. This bought other nations and their respective companies into focus and the economic revival, which was kicked off by the US consumer, and the Chinese manufacturer soon spread its tentacles far and wide. As the bottomlines of companies across the globe improved on account of this economic revival and their value became apparent, cheap money that was locked somewhere in the US bank account soon found its way into the equity markets. Infact, prices of all the assets started moving northwards. This period soon turned into one of those extremely rare cases in history where prices of almost all the commodities witnessed a simultaneous rise.

Although India's contribution to this revival was not that significant, this period coincided with one of the best ever as far as acceleration of the economy was concerned. This obviously whetted the appetite of fund managers across the globe and the same cheap money that found its way into other emerging market asset classes also found its way into India. Soon, the extremely well regulated and technologically savvy Indian equity markets witnessed an unprecedented buying interest. Notwithstanding a few bumps in the interim, the Indian benchmark indices have witnessed a more than three fold jump in their market capitalization over the last 3 to 4 years and turned quite a few people in millionaires and billionaires. Another important factor that contributed to this global economic boom was the re-emergence of Japan, the land of rising sun. After spending almost a decade in economic wilderness, the world's second largest economy finally shed the garb of its ultra-conservatism and is currently heading for its longest expansion in the post war period, one that has already lasted more than four years. Here again, exports to the US and China, like elsewhere, played a crucial role. Of late though, the Japanese consumer has also started spending liberally, thus leading to internal consumption also contributing towards its GDP growth.

Thus, while the rate cut by the Federal Reserve did help boost the world economy, the role of China in taking it to the next level cannot be understated. However, the step that was taken to boost the US economy started to backfire. Infact, a worry of exactly the opposite kind started haunting the US Federal Reserve. The consumption binge that Fed itself kicked off has risen to quite an alarming level and has left a gaping hole in their deficit. Before situation threatened to spiral out of control, it stepped in and did a U-turn by resorting to 17 consecutive quarters of interest rate hikes to stem reckless spending by the US consumer. The impact has been positive so far, as due to demand slowdown, prices of some commodities have indeed fallen. However, not wanting this to have a hard landing effect on the economy, the Fed is currently adopting a wait and watch approach. As far as the impact of this on India is concerned, we believe that unlike China or its South East Asian counterparts, growth in India is pre-dominantly internal driven and as such, it stands lesser exposed to the risk of a global slowdown.

However, the capital market perspective does not go in lock step with the economic perspective. While there is no denying the potential of the country as an attractive investment destination, the role of FIIs in the recent bull run cannot be overlooked. Thus, as seen on a couple of occasions in the past, any pull out of funds by them is likely to spark a much broader sell off in the Indian equity markets. Moreover, at the current valuation levels, the relative attractiveness of the Indian equity markets vis-à-vis the US interest rate is considerably lesser than in the recent past. Hence, we would advise investors to exercise caution at the current juncture with regards to their equity investments. Although the India growth story is still intact, most of the sectors currently seem to be overbought and hence vulnerable to FII outflows. A proper study of risk-reward ratio is of the essence!

Monday, September 11, 2006

Atlantis Space Mission launched successfully

NASA launched the Atlantis Space shuttle finally after a couple of initial setbacks. The mission is aimed to complete the construction of the half-built International Space Station(ISS). The ISS will serve as a launchpad for future spaces missions by astronauts from the earth - a truely fascinating idea.

Track the latest about Atlantis here. Also, worth looking is the Flash feature at the NASA homepage which mentions the daily mission schedule for the crew on board.

Cheers,
- Tosh

Friday, September 08, 2006

Azhar's son - Ayaz - Another cricketer in the making?

Mohammad Azharuddin was my most favourite cricketer. An ex-Indian captain, a wristy batsman and a sharp fielder. He said very few words but was a treat to watch when on song. Along with Mark Waugh and Aravinda De-Silva, he gave me great joy while watching him play.

Then the match fixing scandal broke. I still find it hard to believe that he could be involved in something as criminal.

Now his son is 14 years old and plays school, club cricket. Hope to see a similar player (with less controversies)!

More on Mohammad Ayazuddin at Like Father, like son.

Cheers,
- Tosh

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

European Space Agency concludes its Moon Mission

Impact landing ends SMART-1 mission to the Moon

3 September 2006
ESA PR 31-2006. Early this morning, a small flash illuminated the surface of the Moon as the European Space Agency’s SMART-1 spacecraft impacted onto the lunar soil, in the ‘Lake of Excellence’ region. The planned impact concluded a successful mission that, in addition to testing innovative space technology, had been conducting a thorough scientific exploration of the Moon for about a year and a half.

Taken from http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM7A76LARE_index_0.html

Cheers,
- Tosh

Friday, September 01, 2006

US Open Tennis 2006

* Can the great showman-cum-gentleman Andre Agassi do a Goran Ivanisevic and script a fairytale finish?
* Can the promising young talent Rafel Nadal get past the unbeatable champion Roger Federer?
* Can Maria Sharapova / Serena Williams win a Grand Slam again?

Enjoy the Action.
Cheers,
- Tosh