The Twenty 20 cricket world cup is on in Sri Lanka - though some people call it Entertainment and not Cricket :-) The question to be asked is how much part really does Luck play in determining the champion in this format?
To begin with, we can compare it with the Triangular one day CB Series in Australia, the IPL & the One Day world Cup. In my opinion, Luck plays the least role in the Australian CB series. There are plenty of league matches and most importantly, the finals are best of 3. You are hence most assured that the most consistently better team will win. However on the flip side the tournament contains only 3 teams!
The IPL contains lots of teams, too many league games and a winner-takes-it-all final. Hence the luck factor is reduced during initial stages but really increases at the end, especially in the T20 format. Note - this only has Semi Finals and Finals, so only 3 knock out matches.
The World Cups (T20 & 50 over) also have a league round but due to the group concept, the risk is high even at the start. Loose a couple of games and you are out. Loose a Quarter/Semi/Final game and you are out, regardless of what you did earlier. And hence a team needs to perform consistently well enough in this format to win the trophy. Whereas in the CB Series/IPL a team can loose a few times, recover and still win or at least make it to the last stages (IPL).
I feel the T20 world cup has the largest window of opportunity for Luck. Test matches give teams chances to come back - offer same/similar conditions to two teams more or less. That does not happen in limited overs and especially in T20 - a couple of wickets/overs/sixes can change the game decisively. That too in a format like World Cup - and its almost impossible to predict a favorite! I tend to watch this tournament more neutrally. Maybe favor India a bit, hate the Australians a little, but just a bit in it, not much.
Would you like to predict a winner? :-)
To begin with, we can compare it with the Triangular one day CB Series in Australia, the IPL & the One Day world Cup. In my opinion, Luck plays the least role in the Australian CB series. There are plenty of league matches and most importantly, the finals are best of 3. You are hence most assured that the most consistently better team will win. However on the flip side the tournament contains only 3 teams!
The IPL contains lots of teams, too many league games and a winner-takes-it-all final. Hence the luck factor is reduced during initial stages but really increases at the end, especially in the T20 format. Note - this only has Semi Finals and Finals, so only 3 knock out matches.
The World Cups (T20 & 50 over) also have a league round but due to the group concept, the risk is high even at the start. Loose a couple of games and you are out. Loose a Quarter/Semi/Final game and you are out, regardless of what you did earlier. And hence a team needs to perform consistently well enough in this format to win the trophy. Whereas in the CB Series/IPL a team can loose a few times, recover and still win or at least make it to the last stages (IPL).
I feel the T20 world cup has the largest window of opportunity for Luck. Test matches give teams chances to come back - offer same/similar conditions to two teams more or less. That does not happen in limited overs and especially in T20 - a couple of wickets/overs/sixes can change the game decisively. That too in a format like World Cup - and its almost impossible to predict a favorite! I tend to watch this tournament more neutrally. Maybe favor India a bit, hate the Australians a little, but just a bit in it, not much.
Would you like to predict a winner? :-)
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