Twenty20 World Cup Cricket - Luck factor

The Twenty 20 cricket world cup is on in Sri Lanka - though some people call it Entertainment and not Cricket :-) The question to be asked is how much part really does Luck play in determining the champion in this format?

To begin with, we can compare it with the Triangular one day CB Series in Australia, the IPL & the One Day world Cup. In my opinion, Luck plays the least role in the Australian CB series. There are plenty of league matches and most importantly, the finals are best of 3. You are hence most assured that the most consistently better team will win. However on the flip side the tournament contains only 3 teams!

The IPL contains lots of teams, too many league games and a winner-takes-it-all final. Hence the luck factor is reduced during initial stages but really increases at the end, especially in the T20 format. Note - this only has Semi Finals and Finals, so only 3 knock out matches.

The World Cups (T20 & 50 over) also have a league round but due to the group concept, the risk is high even at the start. Loose a couple of games and you are out. Loose a Quarter/Semi/Final game and you are out, regardless of what you did earlier. And hence a team needs to perform consistently well enough in this format to win the trophy. Whereas in the CB Series/IPL a team can loose a few times, recover and still win or at least make it to the last stages (IPL).

I feel the T20 world cup has the largest window of opportunity for Luck. Test matches give teams chances to come back - offer same/similar conditions to two teams more or less. That does not happen in limited overs and especially in T20 - a couple of wickets/overs/sixes can change the game decisively. That too in a format like World Cup - and its almost impossible to predict a favorite! I tend to watch this tournament more neutrally. Maybe favor India a bit, hate the Australians a little, but just a bit in it, not much.

Would you like to predict a winner? :-)

News from the India versus Australia test series 2008 - Border Gavaskar Trophey

Australia are in India to play the 4 match test series. The first test match was a draw. Although, in my opinion, had there been no rain, and had the teams achieved higher over rates, then Australia could have had a chance for victory. As it happened, both the teams were defensive. Just trying to read each others' games at the start of a very high-stake series. The slow pitch at Bangalore also played its part in the tame draw.

Come the second test match. Australia were outplayed from the first to the last session. In batting, bowling, fielding, sledging, offense and captaincy. This was one of their worst defeats in the last couple of decades. All their weaknesses were exposed as they fielded one of their weakest teams to visit India. Indian spinners were good, fast bowlers were superior and their captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni was always one step ahead of the game. After the match, the Kangaroos mad a lot of noise about the reverse swing that the Indian duo of Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma were able to generate. However, I think that Australia had lost the battle in their minds. They were too defensive, both while batting and bowling. And were one bowler short.

There is now a long break before the next test match starts in Delhi on the 29th of October. I feel this break is turning out to be in India's interest. As the Australians try to over analyze the reasons of their failure. Too much focus is on Brett Lee, who has been below par. The controversy around why he didn't bowl early on 4th day of 2nd match must be distracting him. The captain Ricky Ponting and the coach Tim Neilson gave two different versions of the reason. There have been calls for Andrew Symonds' return, but they have been silenced by the coach. Their real problem has been the top order. It will be very interesting to see how they face up to this intense pressure. In my opinion, if Australia manage to win/draw this series, they will undoubtedly retain and remain the best team on the planet by and far. But if they loose the series, then their invincibility will reduce.

India need to decide on whether or not to play Anil Kumble. I think it would be a wise decision not to change the winning combination. Even if he plays, I think he should hand over the captaincy to the champion Dhoni.

Cheers,
- Ashutosh

Should Anil Kumble resign from the Indian Cricket Team?

In the 1st test match of the India Vs. Australia Border Gavaskar series, Kumble went wicket-less. Its the first time that this has happened in India. There is a clear cut case of Anil being in the playing 11 only because he is the captain and not because he belongs to the best 11 in the country right now.

On top of that - he carried an injury in this test match. Did not bowl when he was needed the most. And when he returned back to the field, he reversed Mahendra Singh Dhoni's aggressive field placements. All and all, a poor performance form the veteran. I think Saurav Ganguly has made a right decision in calling it quits. And Anil Kumble needs to take a clue. In the last test series for India Vs. Sri Lanka, Anil Kumble took 8 wickets in 3 matches at an average of 50 and a strike rate of 100! Prior to that, in the home series against South Africa, he took 4 wickets in 2 matches at an average of 60 and a strike rate of 150!!

At the start of this series, Anil announced that this would be his last test at Bangalore. However, at the end of the match, he made a shocking statement "One bad game doesn't make you a bad player". Maybe, his manager or someone else needs to remind him of the above statistics so that he can find out how many bad games he has had in the last year or so.

I am a firm believer of performance dictating selection, and on basis of both - current form, and captaincy skills - I would choose Mahendra Singh Dhoni as the skipper and Piyush Chawla as the leg spinner to play against the Australian team in the remainder of the series. It will be interesting to see what the Indian selectors say. Incidentally, the team for the last 2 test matches against Australia should be selected soon, so we will come to know what their opinion is.

Of course it goes without saying, that Anil Kumble has been India's only match-winning bowler on all wickets for the last decade or more. However, I think the age is taking its toll and he is near the end of his career.

Cheers,
- Ashutosh

Australia vs. India Cricket Test Series

Hi There!

Its been a long gap, and soon cricket will be back to business. The Champions Trophy was postponed due to the security concerns in Pakistan. The Champions League was postponed earlier because it came dangerously close to the Champions Trophy. And hence the Indian cricketers got a very well deserved break from the high intensity international games.

What I liked was that - most of them played for their national (Ranji) teams. And many of them will play the Irani Trophy - The winner of last year's Ranji Trophy (Delhi) vs. the Rest of India team. That will be one hell of an interesting match to follow. It will pitch e.g. Ishant vs. Sachin and that would be awesome to watch.

I have been a big fan of young blood in the India cricket teams. And hence I believe, Sachin Tenulkar, Rahul Dravid, Saurav Ganguly and VVS Laxman should all be asked to go away. Especially because most of them have been in terrible batting form of late. Sachin has been good in ODIs but poor in tests. He has been extremely unfit and sometimes he has hidden that fact (e.g. South Africa series at home). Rahul Dravid has been the lowest in confidence ever. Saurav has been mediocre. And Laxman - although doesn't get out, he has not been able to force the run-rate issue. Even though he plays with the tail. Which makes him look like a selfish individual rather than a team-mate who is willing to risk his wicket for the country.

And hence I like the idea of leaving Saurav out of the team for Irani Trophy. I would also have loved to hear the notices sent out to Sachin - to stay fitter. To VVS - to score briskly and to Rahul - to hang up his boots or face the axe. I really hope that the new selection committee of BCCI is as good as the previous two. And have a vision for the future.

About the test series - Ahh, I just cannot wait for it to begin. Because of intolerable foreign conditions - both on and off the field - India has been a tough place for visitors to win test series. Australia failed to do it twice under Steve Waugh - who dubbed it as his Final Frontier. But finally, they were able achieve the feat under Ricky Ponting when they were here the last time. Hence I think the mental barrier has been broken for the visiting teams. And I predict that the result might be in favour of the visitors, this time too. And although my head says Australia, my heart still goes for India :-)

On paper, Australia look weak - Few of their pacers have experience of Test matches in India. None of their middle order and spinners have played here earlier. Still, the extended break has meant, they get more time to acclimatize. And they will do so very well. They have an aura of confidence nowadays, which makes them a candidate to bounce back from any situation - a belief that comes handy in test matches more as compared to one dayers or 20-20. In terms of individual players, I think Ricky Ponting, Matthew Hayden, Brett Lee and Shane Watson will be the ones to watch out.

Indians will have a very strong opening pair followed by a weak and out-of-confidence middle order. The two spinners are too old and have no new weapons. In my opinion, they will be able to force wickets only on a draconian pitch. The fast bowling looks stronger and their wicket keeper is their main weapon. In my two decades of cricket following, I have not been impressed by anyone as much as by Mahendra Singh Dhoni. He has an aura about himself - his youth, confidence and risk apetite makes him a very dangerous player for the opposition. He has yet to establish himself big time as a Test batsman, but I think the time is not far when he will shine there as well. And this could be that series. Overall, India's fragile middle order along with their old spinners are their weak links.

Let's enjoy the series and hope that it is remembered more for cricket than for extraneous issues. Unlike the last time these two sides met.

Cheers,
- Tosh